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A study of New Mexico’s universal childcare program found sharply different work changes by income: lower-income mothers increased employment and hours, while higher-income mothers reduced them. Researcher Chris Herbst says the policy may be expanding families’ choices, though the study does not establish why each group changed its work patterns or whether the program will pay for itself.
Nearly a year after New Mexico launched its universal, free childcare program, a study finds that lower-income mothers in the state have increased their employment and work hours, while higher-income mothers have cut back. The findings, by Arizona State University professor Chris Herbst, suggest the policy is changing how mothers allocate time between paid work and other activities, though the reasons differ by income and are not fully established.
Herbst compared mothers’ labor-market outcomes in New Mexico before and after the policy took effect, and with outcomes for mothers outside the state. His analysis used monthly U.S. Census Bureau data collected from May 2019 through August 2026. The study reports that lower-income mothers’ labor-force participation and employment each rose by 18% after the policy; their full-time employment rose by 23%, and their weekly work hours by 15%.
For higher-income mothers, the study found the opposite pattern: labor-force participation fell by 8%, full-time employment by 17%, and weekly hours by 10%. Herbst proposed that some may be working less to spend more time with their children, while others may be attending school. Those explanations are possibilities, not confirmed findings about individual families.
The program requires all parents in a household to work or take part in another qualifying activity, such as education, but does not set a minimum number of hours. Herbst told The 74 that this flexibility may allow families to make different choices about work, study and caregiving. The study’s reported percentages describe changes in the outcomes measured; they should not be read as percentage-point changes.
Work Gains Differ by Income
The results point to a substantial change in access to paid work for lower-income mothers, for whom childcare costs can stand between them and employment. Herbst said the findings indicate that some families could not afford care on the wages available to them before the program. Free care may remove that barrier, though the study does not determine how much of each observed change is caused by the policy rather than other factors.
The decrease in work among higher-income mothers also matters: the policy’s effect is not simply that every parent works more. As Herbst described it, families may have gained more control over how they use their time, including the option to pursue education or spend more time at home. Longer-term effects on earnings, public finances and children’s development remain open questions.
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A Rare U.S. Policy Test
New Mexico enacted the program last November, becoming, according to the report, the first U.S. state to adopt a universal childcare program. That makes the state a rare opportunity to study universal childcare within the United States, rather than relying mainly on evidence from international programs such as Quebec’s subsidized system.
Herbst said the employment gains reported for lower-income mothers are larger than those found in research on Quebec’s program, where mothers’ labor-force participation increased 14.5% relative to its pre-policy level. The comparisons involve separate studies and policy settings. Herbst cautioned that it is too early to know whether New Mexico’s program will generate enough additional tax revenue to pay for its costs, as research has found for Quebec.
The United States also had a wartime childcare initiative under the 1940 Lanham Act, which supported subsidized centers so women could work during World War II. Herbst has studied its effects, but it was a different program and historical period; New Mexico did not participate in the Lanham Act, according to Herbst.
“Disadvantaged families can now afford to work.”
— Chris Herbst, speaking to The 74
Causes and Long-Term Effects
The study reports changes in employment and hours, but the explanations for those changes are not settled. It is not clear how many higher-income mothers reduced work to attend school, how many chose more caregiving time, or what other factors may have contributed. The source report does not provide enough detail here to assess the study’s full methods, uncertainty ranges or the program’s cost per family.
It also remains unknown whether increased employment will produce enough added tax revenue to cover public spending, or how the program will affect children’s development and later outcomes. Those effects may take years to emerge, and Herbst said they will be harder to study than short-term work patterns.
Further Evidence Will Take Time
Researchers can continue tracking employment, work hours and education as the program operates. Any assessment of whether the policy pays for itself will require comparing its public costs with changes in employment and tax revenue over time. The source report does not identify a specific date for the next study or a state evaluation.
Evidence on children’s development and long-term education or earnings will take longer to gather. For now, the reported findings offer an early view of how the policy is associated with mothers’ work, not a final accounting of its economic or family-wide effects.
Key Questions
What did the study find about lower-income mothers?
It reported an 18% rise in both labor-force participation and employment, a 23% increase in full-time employment, and a 15% increase in weekly work hours after the program began.
Did higher-income mothers work more?
No. The study reported that their labor-force participation fell by 8%, full-time employment by 17%, and weekly hours by 10%. The reasons for those declines are not confirmed.
Why might some mothers have reduced their work?
Herbst suggested that some higher-income mothers may have spent more time caring for children or returned to school. These are proposed explanations, not established findings about each family.
Does the study show that New Mexico’s program pays for itself?
No. Herbst said it is too early to determine whether additional tax revenue will offset the program’s costs.
What is not yet known about children?
The study described in the report does not establish the program’s effects on children’s development or long-term outcomes. Those impacts could take longer to measure.
Source: rss
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